Discipline Kills: The Carlos Santana Story

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Carlos Santana made his major league debut on June 11, 2010, and true to his form batted high up in the order debuting third. Santana behind the plate gunned down runners at an above average clip, being a solid defender behind the dish. In the batters box he posted a 260/407/467 slash line, tremendous for any player and especially a catcher. However his season ended in a collision at home plate at Fenway Park with Ryan Kalish, requiring him to be carted off the field.



His season ended abruptly, but returned in 2011 with a vengeance. For a rookie Santana had a tremendous eye, walking more than he struck out, and that trait stayed with him in his sophomore season. Santana proved to be very durable in 2011, playing in 155 games, a trend in his career that would stay. He posted a 128 OPS+, down from his rookie year but still great behind the plate in 95 games, with 66 games at first as well. Apt with the glove, Santana early in the year started a triple play at first base. He made a tremendous dive on a bunt, then doubled off AJ Pierzynski and then Carlos Quinten.

Before 2012 Santana signed a 5 year deal, 21 million dollar deal with Cleveland which would prove to be an underpayment. Despite a slow start  to 2012 he still posted a 121 OPS+ and walked more than 90 times in 143 games. In 2013 Santana began to play first and DH more often, with Yan Gomes splitting duties with him. However the position change would not stop Santana, as he posted a 135 OPS+ and as per norm walked more than 90 times while playing over 150 games.

In 2014 Santana was a player without a home. His time as a catcher would grind to a halt as he received a concussion midway through the year. This injury cemented his move away from catching, as Cleveland started Santana 26 games at third. Santana led the AL in walks with 113 even with his concussion, and played more than 150 games again.

The year 2015 brought a change in Santana. His power slumped, leading to a slugging percentage under 400. However Santana would still contribute offensively, taking over 100 walks and stealing 11 bases on 14 tries. While playing his consistent 150 games.

2016 was the year it all came together for Santana and the Indians. Santana spent the majority of the year at DH, as the Party at Napoli's took over his spot at first. However Santana would still have his own festivities in his time at first, catching the final out in the ALCS to sent the Indians to the World Series in which they would lose to the Cubs in 7 games.

2017 was more of the same for Santana. 150 games, but only (gasps) 88 walks. Santana silenced critics who called him a DH type, as he posted stellar metrics at first base throughout the whole year and won the Fielding Bible award. Eager to bolster their lineup, Philadelphia snatched up Santana on a three year deal.

His time in Philly was not one worthy of remembering. He was relatively average with the bat that year, while the Phillies shifted him from corner to corner in the infield as the Phillies tanked at the end of the year. At the end of the disappointing season, with Gabe Kapler having seemingly little control over his players, several players during games retreated to the clubhouse to play Fortnite. This tradition ended when Santana smashed the TV with a bat. He then finished the year playing more then 150 games (again) and walking triple digits for the third time in his career.

Seemingly displeased with the prospects of keeping Santana on the roster in 2019, he was shipped off to Seattle in exchange for Jean Segura. Ten days later, he was traded back to Cleveland for Edwin Encarnacion. Santana was a big reason why Cleveland managed to stay around long enough in the division facing the Twins, as his everyday presence and quality bat netted him his first career All Star appearance, as at the end of the year he posted the 3rd best OBP in the American League. Santana also was a participant in the Home Run Derby, as the rest of baseball finally figured out that this Carlos Santana guy is pretty good as he posted 108 walks to 108 strikeouts.

Games in History: 2008 World Series Game 5

Embed from Getty Images World Series clinchers vary in a variety of ways. Some are snoozeful blowouts, others are one for the ages. The Phillies Game 5 victory in 2008 is one of those Games of History.

Embed from Getty Images The Phillies, at grassy Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia were looking to clinch the game on home territory. The Rays, who defeated the Boston Red Sox in 7 games in the ALCS, were on the brink of elimination, trailing 3-1 in the series. Philadelphia decided to trot out NLCS MVP Cole Hamels, with a strong lineup including 2007 MVP Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, 2006 MVP Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino. Tampa Bay, while short on offense, still had standouts such as Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and a young Evan Longoria. Tampa put its hope on starter Scott Kazmir to try and force a Game 6. Senator and former Philly John Oates delivered the national anthem, and Jim Bunning threw out the first pitch for the Phillies game, which was being played in a fine mist.Embed from Getty Images

Hamels had a 1-2-3 first inning, retiring the side in order. Kazmir had a far rougher first. He walked Werth, plunked Utley and walked Pat Burrell, loading the bases for Shane Victorino with 2 outs. With a single to left, Werth and Utley motored around the bases to give Philly an early 2-0 lead. Kazmir, with runners on the corners, managed to escape further damage. In the second both Hamels and Kazmir allowed a runner with 2 outs, but nothing came out of it. The side went down in order for both teams in the third inning. In the top of the 4th, Hamels gave up a double to Carlos Pena who was then singled home by Longoria to cut the deficit to one.Embed from Getty Images

Hamels and the Phillies had a chance to blow the game open in the 4th inning. Kazmir walked Rollins and Werth, putting Cole Hamels who got on by fielder's choice on third and loading the bases. The Phillies could do nothing with this opportunity and left the inning leading 2-1. Hamels had a 1-2-3 fifth, striking out the pitcher Kazmir. Kazmir attracted more strikes when he was at the plate than on the mound that inning, walking Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell to lead off the fifth inning. Kazmir, who had already thrown 103 pitches, was removed from the game and Grant Balfour brought in. While Balfour was warming up to clean up the mess left by Kazmir, the ground crew was trying to keep the infield dry and playable on.

Embed from Getty Images Hamels’ performance was going smoothly, unlike the attempts to field the ball by his defense. Nonetheless, he got 2 quick outs before allowing an infield single to Melvin Upton as Rollins did not want to mishandled the ball on the soaked infield. With Carlos Pena at the plate, Upton took off and stole second on the first pitch. This base were to prove extremely important, as Pena singled in Upton to tie the game. A miscommunication between catcher Carlos Ruiz and Hamels allowed Pena to reach second on a passed ball, but Longoria flew out to end the inning, and the game at the moment. Embed from Getty Images

Rain was pouring in Philly, and the game was called for a delay on Monday October 27, 2008. Normally in the regular season the game would go to the Phillies, but commissioner Bud Selig ensured that the game would resume. The Rays were off, desperately hunting for a hotel. When the game would resume, the lineups would remain the same. Everyone was available except the pulled Kazmir.Embed from Getty Images

With the game resuming of Wednesday October 29, the Phillies were certainly not going to send Hamels out again, instead opting to replace him with a pinch hitter, Geoff Jenkins, who led off with a double. After a Rollins bunt that moved him to third, Jenkins scored and gave Philly a 1 run lead on a Werth single, as well as forcing Rays manager Joe Maddon to pull Balfour from the game. Werth managed to steal second, but nothing came out of it as replacement JP Howell induced a fly ball to third to end the inning.

Embed from Getty Images Ryan Madson, yes the same Ryan Madson from the 2018 World Series, was brought in to bring the Phillies closer to the championship. After getting a strikeout, he gave up the tying home run to Rocco Baldelli and a single to Jason Bartlett. After Howell sacrificed himself on a bunt, JC Romero was brought in to end the threat. With Bartlett on second, a grounder was hit up the middle to Chase Utley. Bartlett was on a mad dash for home, looking for the crucial tying run. Utley, running to left, pump faked a throw to first baseman Ryan Howard and saw Bartlett dashing home. Utley rocketed a throw across the diamond to home, with catcher Carlos Ruiz applying a tag to end the inning.Embed from Getty Images

Howell was able to get out in the top of the seventh(himself batting), but managed none in the bottom. He allowed a double to Pat Burell and was immediately pulled in favor of Chad Bradford, that of Moneyball fame. After a groundout, Pedro Feliz singled home pinch runner Eric Brunlett for a measly 1 run lead, which would prove to be the margin needed for victory. Romero managed a 1-2-3 eighth, and Rays youngster David Price managed to keep the Phillies shutout in the bottom of the 8th, despite walking Utley and allowing him to steal second. Manager Charlie Manuel brought in perfect closer Brad Lidge to save the game.Embed from Getty Images

Lidge got Longoria to pop out to Utley and got 2 quick strikes on Dioner Navarro, before he managed to get a single into right. Fernando Perez was brought in to pinch run, and instead of Baldelli Maddon used (2016 World Series MVP) Ben Zobrist to pinch hit. Perez stole second and then Zobrist lined to right for the second out. The tying run was in scoring position for pinch hitter Eric Hinske, substitution for Jason Bartlett. Lidge was in a similar situation before, but he gave up a 3 run homer to Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, forcing a Game 6. Lidge, chased out of Houston due to poor performance, would not like to repeat that incident on the World Series stage. And he didn’t. It only took 3 pitches for Lidge to strike out Hinske and to end the game.Embed from Getty Images

The Phillies won their first World Series since 1980, and this game was left to history.

Games in History: 2004 NLCS Game 5

The 2004 NLCS has been overshadowed due to the Boston Red Sox’s miracle comeback against the Yankees. Despite this, the 2004 NLCS was arguably one of the best postseason series of all time. The St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros squared off to determine who would go to the World Series.

After St. Louis took a 2-0 series lead in the first 2 games, the series shifted to Houston, where the Astros won 2 to bring up a critical game 5. The winner of Game 5 shifts the momentum of the series in games 6 and 7. Game 5 pitted St. Louis starter Woody Williams against the young Brandon Backe of the Astros.

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Williams, the 2003 All Star, had to deal with a top heavy Houston Astros order of Craig Biggio, Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, and Jeff Kent. Backe, although he went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs in his NLDS start, struck little fear into the dangerous Cardinals lineup of Tony Womack, Larry Walker, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria and Reggie Sanders, with Mike Matheney and Williams finishing out the order. Backe, who pitched to the tune of a 4.98 ERA and 5.01 FIP so far into his career, had a challenge ahead.

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Both pitchers started out strong. Backe retired the first 13 Cardinals he faced and Williams gave up a single, 2 walks and HBP, which did no damage. Backe ran into trouble in the top of the 6th. Tony Womack got a single with 2 outs and a Larry Walker walk put 2 runners on with 2 out and Pujols at the plate. Backe got Pujols to fly out to second baseman Kent to end the threat. Williams allowed no base runners in the 6th or 7th inning, but was replaced by pinch hitter John Mabry in the top of the 8th. Williams took 93 pitches to go 7, gave up no runs and so far gave the Astros little chance.

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Backe retired Sanders, Matheny and Mabry in the top of the 8th and was replaced by pinch hitter Orlando Palmeiro. In 100 pitches, Backe only allowed 3 base runners in 8 innings. In the bottom half of the 8th, Jason Isringhausen retired Ausmus, Palmeiro and Biggio. The Astros brought in Brad Lidge for the 9th inning of the 0-0 tied game, shifting Palmeiro to left and pulling Craig Biggio. Lidge needed only 9 pitches to induce a Tony Womack groundout and to strike out Walker and Pujols swinging. Embed from Getty Images,

Isringhausen, the 2004 Games Finished and Saves leader, came out for his second inning of work, facing the heart of the Astros order.

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 On Isringhausen's 14th pitch of the night, allowed a single to right field to the ever dangerous Carlos Beltran. It only took 5 pitches to force a pop up from Bagwell to center fielder Jim Edmonds. With 2 strikes on the next batter Lance Berkman, Beltran took off for second base and successfully stealing it. With the force at first base gone, Isringhausen intentionally walked Berkman to keep the force play available, but bringing up Jeff Kent to the plate.

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Kent already had 2 home runs in the series, but little else. Isringhausen checked on Beltran at second before delivering his first, and only, pitch to Kent. Kent smashed the ball into left field, far above the seats and the outfield for a mammoth 3 run shot to give the Astros the walk off win. The stadium erupted, as Kent’s shot gave the Astros a 3-0 win over the Cardinals and a 3-2 series lead heading back to St. Louis.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

The Mets Could be Worse

The New York Mets are...a mess. With well documented issues, one could think that this team could not be in a worse spot. Well, one would be wrong.

Now sure, the Mets are pretty bad. You have "ace" Jason Vargas trying to fight a reporter. Manager Mickey Callaway is...pretty bad to put it lightly. Injuries impacted this team like they always do. The bullpen is blowing leads left and right, faster than the front office blows money. Fielding is certainly not a strong suit. We just had Bobby Bonilla day, which at its core represents the worst part of the Mets history. It involves one Bernie.

Editor's Note: The 9-3 Putout does not support or condemn any political belief.  Unless you say a hot dog is a sandwich, in which case, please leave.

Wrong Bernie. We mean Bernie Madoff. You know the guy? The one what was best buds with the Wilpons who also ran a Ponzi scheme? Madoff got busted at the end of 2008 during the beginning of the Great Recession. The Wilpons put a lot of money into Madoff, gambling deferred contracts due to the possibility of making more money from Madoff’s consistent returns.

Bernie The Incredibles GIF

To simplify things, it was revealed that Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme and the Mets were out a lot of money. Although they managed to avoid the worst lawsuit, they still owed compensation to those impacted. Obviously this plays a role in the dislike of the Wilpon family.

So, Mets fans: when your team is collapsing around you, at least remember that you are not in a financial fraud situation. Mickey Callaway being stupid is better than the Wilpons taking out millions in loans to finance the team near bankruptcy.

Just keep in mind the Wilpons could be doing a better job.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

30 Year All Star Anniversary: Bo Knows All-Star

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Bo Jackson is one of the biggest multi-sport stars in history. From barreling over Brian Bosworth at the goal line against the Seahawks to breaking a bat over his helmet, Bo could seemingly do everything on a field. He could make the All-Star Game as well, and he did just that, leaving his impact on the 1989 game.

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The 1989 All Star Game was in Anaheim, California, with Angels coach Jimmie Reese throwing out the first pitch and former president Ronald Reagan joining Vin Scully in the broadcast booth for the first inning. Carl Yastrzemski and Don Drysdale were honorary captains for each team.

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AL starter Dave Stewart allowed a leadoff single to Ozzie Smith, who was then caught stealing. After a Tony Gwynn walk and a groundout that moved him to second, Kevin Mitchell singled him in for a quick 1-0 NL lead. After an Eric Davis walk, Mitchell would be driven in by a Howard Johnson single. Although catcher Terry Steinbach couldn’t catch either Davis or Johnson stealing, the batter Pedro Guerrero flew out to end the threat; the National League led 2-0.

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Rick Reuschel, Stewart’s NL counterpart, did not fare better. He gave up a towering leadoff shot to Bo Jackson to start the game. Immediately afterwards, he gave up another solo shot to third baseman Wade Boggs. Although he gave up another single with 2 outs, Reuschel did not give up any more runs. He left the inning with the score tied 2-2.

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In the top of the second, Nolan Ryan retired Ryne Sandberg, Benito Santiago and Smith in order. The bottom of the inning started with a leadoff Ruben Sierra single, followed by a flyout to right fielder Tony Gwynn and another single moving Sierra to third. With runners at the corners and 1 out, Bo Jackson hit a grounder to Ozzie Smith. Smith flipped the ball to Sandberg for an out, but they could not get the double play, giving the AL the lead. Jackson managed to steal second and force a throwing error by Santiago, allowing him to reach third. Jackson was stranded, as John Smoltz forced Boggs to pop up for the final out.

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The top of the third featured a Gwynn single to Ryan, a notoriously bad fielder. Gwynn managed to steal second but Ryan struck out Will Clark and 1989 MVP Kevin Mitchell to leave him stranded. The bottom of the inning brought Rick Sutcliffe out to replace Smoltz, and Sutcliffe gave up a single to Kirby Puckett, allowing him to reach second on a wild pitch. Hall of Famer Harold Baines singled him in, and Baines would eventually be brought in by Ruben Sierra after Cal Ripken and Julio Franco groundouts each allowed him to advance a base.

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The fourth brought no scores by either team, despite a Bo Jackson single. The fifth had the same result, even with a Cal Ripken double. Both innings ended with a runner on third for the AL, while the NL could not muster a runner. The game remained at a 5-2 score until the top of the 8th, where a Glenn Davis walk followed by Kevin Mitchell and Von Hayes singles brought the score to 5-3. Vince Coleman, running for Mitchell, was stranded at third on a Tim Wallach flyout to Mike Greenwell in left to end the inning. The bottom of the inning brought a Ruben Sierra leadoff walk against Mitch Williams, who certainly was living up to his “Wild Thing” nickname. Williams picked Sierra off of first base for the first out, and the inning ended on a whimper.

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The top of the ninth had Doug Jones trying to save the game for the AL. After a Bobby Bonilla leadoff single, he was forced out at second on a ground ball by Willie Randolph. With 1 out, Tony Pena represented the tying run at the plate. It was not to be, as Pena grounded out to Jones, who threw to shortstop Tony Fernandez at second who fired the throw to first baseman Don Mattingly, ending the game.

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Bo Jackson, for his towering shot, sheer hustle and outstanding baserunning, was named MVP as the AL won.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

5 year All Star Anniversary: Jeter Bids Farewell

The year was 2014, and Minnesota got to host (another) All Star Game. It was a beginning and end of sorts. The Minnesota light rail system to St. Paul began to accommodate for the game, and Derek Jeter’s career was winding to a close. Minnesota successfully bid and got the game, although the Cubs tried to host it due to Wrigley Field's centennial anniversary. Nonetheless, Rod Carew was present in Minnesota to toss out the first pitch.

The starter elections went relatively normal, with only a few abnormalities. Matt Wieters was elected starting AL catcher but could not play, so Salvador Perez took his spot. Derek Jeter, in the midst of a 0.2 WAR season and posting a .256/.304/.313 line, was elected starting shortstop for the American League. Jeff Samardzija was an All Star for the National League’s Cubs but was traded to the Oakland A’s before the break so he was not eligible to participate for either team. Anthony Rizzo was elected for the National League’s final player vote, and Chris Sale for the AL. Coincidentally for the AL, the final player vote had the 2014 (Corey Kluber), 2015 (Dallas Keuchel), 2016 (Rick Porcello), and 2017 (Kluber) American League Cy Young winners, with perennial top finisher Sale and immaculate inning-tosser Garrett Richards also present.

Felix Hernandez started the game for the AL, facing Adam Wainwright. Andrew McCutchen led off the game with a single, and eventually made it to third base on a steal before Paul Goldschmidt grounded out to end the inning. Wainwright faced leadoff man Jeter, and wanted to give him “a couple of pipe shots." Jeter led off with a double, and was eventually driven in by a Mike Trout triple. Miguel Cabrera homered, giving the AL a quick 3-0 lead. Wainwright faced a lot of heat for his joking comment he made during the game about being Jeter's cookie dispenser.

The top of the second started with a Giancarlo Stanton flyout to Robinson Cano. Then Jon Lester gave up a barrage of hits: a single to Aramis Ramirez followed by doubles by Chase Utley and Johnathan Lucroy, scoring 2 runs. After that, Clayton Kershaw and Alfredo Simon kept the AL silent in the bottom of the 2nd and 3rd, and Yu Darvish did the same in the top of the 3rd. Simon gave up a single to Jeter for his final All Star Game at bat. In the top of the 4th inning, Sale induced 2 quick fly outs to Adam Jones and Josh Donaldson, before hitting Chase Utley with a pitch (that happened a lot to Chase). Jeter was gone at the top of the fourth, with the majority of the fanfare going along with it. Jonathan Lucroy hit his second double of the game, driving in pinch runner Dee Gordon to tie the game. Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer kept the game at 3-3 until the bottom of the 5th.

After getting one out, Pat Neshek gave up singles to Derek Norris and Alexei Ramirez, followed by a Mike Trout double scoring Norris. Tyler Clippard entered the game, trying to control the damage. On the third pitch Jose Altuve hit a line drive that was caught by Carlos Gomez, but scored Ramirez giving the AL a 5-3 lead. From here the AL bullpen took control, with Scott Kazmir, Koji Uehara, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Fernando Rodney and Glen Perkins combining to allow no runs and strike out 7 NL batters swinging. Francisco Rodriguez, Craig Kimbrel, Tony Watson and Aroldis Chapman combined to keep the AL scoreless, so the score remained 5-3, with the Kansas City Royals getting to enjoy home field advantage in the World Series to watch Madison Bumgarner come in on short rest and throw 5 shutout innings to clinch Game 7.

Mike Trout was named MVP, and Jeter got one of his many curtain calls during the 2014 season.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

20 Year All Star Anniversary: Williams, Pedro and 1999

Seeing as the All Star Game will quickly be upon us, it is only appropriate to go back and look into the past, as the game has had some truly historic moments. We are coming up on the 20th anniversary of the legendary 1999 All Star Game.

The 1999 game brought the reveal of the nominees of the All Century Team, and its resulting controversy. The All Century Team would eventually be revealed during the World Series, with obvious selections such as Rogers Hornsby, and...confusing ones (like Mark McGwire). Anyways, back to the game.

The game was being held in Fenway Park because it was due to be replaced in a couple years. Thankfully, that nightmare did not ensue, but the historic park was still a beautiful place for the game. In brilliant fashion, Ted Williams made an appearance, one of the final public ones of his lifetime. Driven out to the mound in a golf cart, Williams tipped his hat to the crowd (which he never did as a player). Players crowded around Williams, desperate for a glimpse of the greatest pure hitter of all time. With stars such as Vlad Guerrero, Larry Walker, Mike Piazza, Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell, McGwire, Tony Gwynn, Jim Thome, Roberto Alomar, Cal Ripken, and Barry Larkin among many others, Fenway was packed to the brim with talent.

After Ted Williams threw out the first pitch with Gwynn by his side, Pedro Martinez took the mound with Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate to begin the top of the first. He first struck out 9-time Silver Slugger Barry Larkin, then retired 3-time Batting Champ Larry Walker looking and finishing the inning striking out 600 Home Run Club member Sammy Sosa. The American League plated Kenny Lofton and Manny Ramirez in the first against Curt Schilling.

In the second inning,  Pedro quickly dispatched 4-time Home Run Leader Mark McGwire with a strikeout. After an Alomar error allowed Matt Williams to reach, Pedro faced Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, who was posting a .304/.454/.591 line that year. Bagwell struck out, and Ivan Rodriguez threw out Matt Williams, attempting to steal.

Schilling settled down, but the damage was done. David Cone took the next 2 innings for the AL, giving up a run. Following a Randy Johnson appearance, Kent Bottenfield gave up 2 runs in his inning, and the score was 4-1. The American League's pitchers - including Mike Mussina, Jose Rosado, and Jeff Zimmerman - all racked up holds before closer John Wetteland got the save. The National League could not produce any offense, and lost the game 4-1. Pedro's legendary performance earned him All Star MVP honors, putting another award onto his mantle. The closest the NL got to that level of dominance was a combination of Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner striking out Ron Coomer, Tony Fernandez and John Jaha in the 9th, nothing compared to Pedro.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

Max Muncy Isn't A Snub...Kinda: A 2020 All-Star Preview

Thankfully, MLB’s annual All-Star Game no longer makes an impact on the actual playoffs, but the event has its inherent shortcomings, one of which is that the limited roster size cannot fit all the talent from each league.  For example, the average wRC+ of the 20 National League position players going to Cleveland is about 135, while the average WAR total of the All-Stars is about 3.1 for the position players. When we exclude the two outliers, the MVP-caliber outfielders in Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, from the equation, the average wRC+ is about 130 and the average WAR total is just 2.9.

While I think every NL All-Star selection does deserve to be on the team, there is one blatant name missing: Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy.  The lefty masher is one of the key cogs in a Dodgers offense that ranks first in the NL in, among almost every offensive stat, wRC+ and WAR.

In fact, Muncy is their second-best player behind the aforementioned Bellinger with 3.1 WAR and a 142 wRC+ - both numbers exceeding (if we don’t round) both the averages and medians of current NL All-Star selections.  Again, I’m not arguing that Muncy is a “snub,” but that roster sizes should be expanded as to allow for more of MLB’s talented players. Furthermore, the team with the best run differential and record in baseball deserves to have more All-Stars than a team barely above .500 in the Colorado Rockies.

So, this is an All-Star Preview for the 2020 game.  Muncy’s name recognition should only grow after his clutch World Series home run last fall, but the National League is absolutely loaded with infielders so I’m not confident that fans would vote Muncy in if he continues his seemingly-sustainable success.  Hopefully he is chosen as a reserve to play in front of his home crowd and flaunt his skills.

While Max Muncy is no snub due to the loaded NL roster in 2019, be prepared for him to make some noise at next year’s All-Star Game.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Ryan

Trying to Make Peace with WAR

There’s been rich discussion in the baseball community about the ethics of the analytical revolution over the past several decades, accentuated and explored by the book/movie Moneyball.  Whether you agree with the philosophies of the statistic or not, Wins Above Replacement (or WAR) is the best publicly available assessment of a player’s total value.  On the contrary, in my opinion, runs batted in and pitcher wins are the more “established” and traditional statistics used to value players.

I looked at all qualified player-seasons from the Statcast era (2015-2019) and curated two scatter plots - one for pitchers and one for hitters.  To be fair to leadoff hitters, I’ve averaged runs scored and runs batted in. I compared the totals to fWAR, as shown below:

*Please note that this excludes all negative-WAR seasons

There is actually a strong correlation here!  The above chart demonstrates that sabermetricians and traditionalists really don’t have much to disagree on.  The r-squared value effectively states that 55% of run and RBI totals come from some contextual environment such as what runners are on base.  So we can be certain that about half of traditional stat totals come from how good a player actually is.

I’d argue that this is enough to the point where the two opposing factions of invested fans shouldn’t squabble over which stat is better - they say some similar things.  Though I much prefer WAR because it includes defense, baserunning, and is context-neutral, both measures are adequate ways to evaluate hitters offensively.

But what about pitchers?

*Please note that this excludes all negative-WAR seasons

Due to sample bias (only qualified seasons were included), the extreme winning percentages that would actually lower this correlation even more are excluded.  With that in mind, the correlation between pitcher wins and WAR is already a weak one. Jacob deGrom exemplified the discrepancy last year, when he won the NL Cy Young award^ with a 10-9 record but had a sample-leading 9.0 fWAR.

^I would argue that the media coverage of this discrepancy furthered the campaign for his victory

It’s hard for me to defend wins in this case as I did with RBI earlier.  They are so team and offense-dependent to become virtually meaningless. The correlation value gathered from the scatter plot above says that only 18% of a pitcher’s skill and on-field production has actually directly led to his win-loss record.

So, to recap: I believe it’s fair that the analytically-minded community takes issue with the pitcher Win stat due to its remarkably low correlation to performance, but people should calm the argument concerning runs and their batted in statistics because there isn’t as much to fret over.

Make peace, not war.  

But please, use WAR.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Ryan