Trying to Make Peace with WAR

There’s been rich discussion in the baseball community about the ethics of the analytical revolution over the past several decades, accentuated and explored by the book/movie Moneyball.  Whether you agree with the philosophies of the statistic or not, Wins Above Replacement (or WAR) is the best publicly available assessment of a player’s total value.  On the contrary, in my opinion, runs batted in and pitcher wins are the more “established” and traditional statistics used to value players.

I looked at all qualified player-seasons from the Statcast era (2015-2019) and curated two scatter plots - one for pitchers and one for hitters.  To be fair to leadoff hitters, I’ve averaged runs scored and runs batted in. I compared the totals to fWAR, as shown below:

*Please note that this excludes all negative-WAR seasons

There is actually a strong correlation here!  The above chart demonstrates that sabermetricians and traditionalists really don’t have much to disagree on.  The r-squared value effectively states that 55% of run and RBI totals come from some contextual environment such as what runners are on base.  So we can be certain that about half of traditional stat totals come from how good a player actually is.

I’d argue that this is enough to the point where the two opposing factions of invested fans shouldn’t squabble over which stat is better - they say some similar things.  Though I much prefer WAR because it includes defense, baserunning, and is context-neutral, both measures are adequate ways to evaluate hitters offensively.

But what about pitchers?

*Please note that this excludes all negative-WAR seasons

Due to sample bias (only qualified seasons were included), the extreme winning percentages that would actually lower this correlation even more are excluded.  With that in mind, the correlation between pitcher wins and WAR is already a weak one. Jacob deGrom exemplified the discrepancy last year, when he won the NL Cy Young award^ with a 10-9 record but had a sample-leading 9.0 fWAR.

^I would argue that the media coverage of this discrepancy furthered the campaign for his victory

It’s hard for me to defend wins in this case as I did with RBI earlier.  They are so team and offense-dependent to become virtually meaningless. The correlation value gathered from the scatter plot above says that only 18% of a pitcher’s skill and on-field production has actually directly led to his win-loss record.

So, to recap: I believe it’s fair that the analytically-minded community takes issue with the pitcher Win stat due to its remarkably low correlation to performance, but people should calm the argument concerning runs and their batted in statistics because there isn’t as much to fret over.

Make peace, not war.  

But please, use WAR.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Ryan

Edwin Diaz is K-Rod 2.0

With their Edwin Diaz trade looking worse and worse by the day, the Mets seemingly have not learned their lesson from Francisco Rodriguez and the eerie parallels concerning the two careers.

The Rodriguez and Diaz problems are very similar. Two young (24 for Diaz, 25 for Rodriguez) closers from the AL West went to the Mets. Both closers were chasing the single season saves record, which Rodriguez managed to get and hold with 62 saves. Both closers, who had shown flashes of dominance before, were viewed to have finally put it together during the season.

After their stellar 20_8 seasons (2008 for Rodriguez, 2018 for Diaz), they went to the Mets. The Mets signed Rodriguez in free agency and traded for Diaz (also, that Robinson Canó guy) at the same time. High expectations were placed on the newly-New York closers.  To put it politely, the expectations were not met.

Although Rodriguez managed to make the All-Star Game in 2009, his total performance for the year was not pretty. The 3.71 ERA looks satisfactory on the surface, but the RA/9 of 4.50 with a slightly better defense in a pitchers park resulted in his bWAR being a measly 0.1. He also walked Mariano Rivera with the bases.  Big oof there.

So far in 2019, Diaz has posted an ERA around 5, with his most notable meltdown being blowing a 3-1 lead against the Phillies. He gave up 5 runs in one third of an inning, losing the game. Editor's Note: This wonderful game was also pretty bad. His deal has looked worse by the day, but it should have been clear from the beginning that these deals do not work out.

May your pennants last forever.

-Prentiss

EXPOSing the Past: Claude Brochu's mishandling of the 1994 strike

Seeing how the Tampa Bay Rays have made intentions clear that they are considering a deal of "splitting" the franchise in playing in the Trop in Tampa and in Montreal, let's focus on how Montreal did with their past teams, more specifically how they handled the 1994 strike.

To put it briefly, the Expos, a team formed in 1969 for the National League, was having a great season in 1994. They 5 All Stars on the roster: Mosies Alou, Ken Hill, Wil Cordero, Marquis Grissom and Darrin Fletcher. Montreal also had a dangerous Larry Walker, contributing in all facets of the game. Post All-Star break, the Expos were beginning to increase their lead in the division over the Greg Maddux-led Atlanta Braves when the strike struck.

There was to be no World Series for the 1994 expos. Nor were there to be revenue sharing, which was proposed during the strike. After future Supreme Court Justice's Sonia Sotomayor's ruling, the Expos were bleeding money. Leader of the owners Claude Brochu ordered manager Kevin Malone to implement a fire sale including Hill, John Wetteland, Alou and Walker. Brochu claims that considering the other owners were not willing to give money, all of the players had to go, which they did. Malone did not offer any salary arbitration to the players, meaning they left and the Expos got little in the way of compensation.

The Expos lost swaths of their fan base due to trading away stars. The penny pinching continued by trading away Pedro Martinez after his 1997 Cy Young season. The Expos kept losing fans, and ownership demanded another stadium due to Olympic Stadium being less than satisfactory. Brochu issued an ultimatum: new stadium or no team. Fans stayed away even more, which made sense as their one good (admittedly great) player was Vlad Guerrero. 

In 1999, Brochu's ability to lead was questioned and leadership was eventually turned over to Jeffrey Loria, a completely qualified and totally not hated owner. Eventually the MLB bought the team, Loria got Marlins and the Expos moved to Washington.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

Can Brandon Workman Keep It Up?

Middle relievers, especially those who are not closers, rarely get any love in the MLB. They are crucial to a team, bridging the gap from the starters to the shutdown ninth inning guy. One such pitcher is Brandon Workman.

Workman is a middle reliever for the Boston Red Sox and is part of a bullpen including Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden and others. Workman was part of the Red Sox's World Series championship team in 2013, then after disappearing for a couple years, made some relief appearances in 2017 and 2018, and finally became a full time piece in 2019. He is, as of June 26th, posting a 1.70 ERA. Workman is allowing a miniscule 3 hits per 9 innings, and an amazing 0.2 HR/9. With his K/9 nearly 13, all should be fine in the land of Workman.

On the contrary, he’s posting a horrendous 6.3 BB/9. He is using his curveball a career high 47.5% of the time, with his fastball and cutter usage declining compared to before. Workman’s swing percentage is hanging around 50%, more than 10% lower than previous years.

Workman is getting fewer swings, and fewer contact on the swings, hovering around the ⅔ mark, again a low. The downside is that Workman’s strike percentage is a horrific 37.9%, a career low. He is simply not finding the zone as often, and although he is not allowing hits, he’s allowing too many walks as well. If batters adjust and do not chase as much, Workman will be in big trouble.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

The 50th Anniversary of Gaylord Perry's Moonshot is Approaching

Pitchers, historically, have not been the best hitters. After all, they are signed due to the ability to pitch and not necessarily swing a bat. Some pitchers, however, are below average even for pitcher hitting. Gaylord Perry fits into that latter group.

The righty began his career with the Giants in 1962. Perry, a two-time Cy Young winner with career accomplishments including 300 wins and 3000 strikeouts, was not known for his hitting. He was actually more known for his spitball usage rather than his hitting skills. The story goes that Perry was taking batting practice one day when his manager, Alvin Dark, remarked how “they’ll put a man on the moon before [Perry] hits a home run.”

1969 rolled along, with it being the final year to live up to JFK’s promise to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. The mound was lowered, the Miracle Mets were playing, American troops were still in Vietnam and Woodstock is coming for the summer. Dark’s quote still rang true and it appeared there was little possibility of that changing, as Perry’s last extra base hit was in 1967. Perry was 30 years old and still going strong as he faced the Dodgers on July 20.

On that same July 20th, NASA had their Apollo 11 mission sent into space and was prepared to land on the moon. Perry was facing Claude Osteen, the 1968 NL leader in losses, and the Dodgers. Run support was most likely not going to be a problem, with the top of the lineup featuring 30/30 man Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays and 1969 MVP winner Willie McCovey.

Perry did not start off strong, giving up 3 runs in the top of the first to Maury Wills, Manny Mota and Wes Parker. Perry later settled down, only allowing a single to Wills in the second, and had a 1-2-3 third inning. Osteen retired the first 8 batters he faced. By now, Neil Armstrong had taken his one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind on the Moon’s rocky surface. And Gaylord Perry had not hit a home run.

Gaylord Perry stepped into the box with 2 out in the bottom of the third to face Osteen, who led the National League in hits given up for 1969 but won 20 games (Editor's Note: pitcher wins don't matter). Perry took an Osteen offering deep and beyond the fences in Candlestick Park. Gaylord Perry had finally hit a home run, coincidentally right after Armstrong stepped on the surface of Earth's moon.

Osteen was clearly rattled by the home run, walking Bonds and eventually throwing the ball away, with Barry's father scoring another run. Perry pitched 8 shutout innings after his disastrous first inning, picking up his 12th win of the year. More importantly, he hit his first home run.

He still lost the bet.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

What Happened to Evan Longoria?

Evan Longoria was the Rays' star third baseman for much of the past decade. After his callup in 2008, he contributed to their run to the 2008 World Series and became one of the best players in franchise history. With such memorable plays as the walk off home run in 2011's Game 162, Longoria became synonymous with the Tampa Bay Rays. So what ever happened to him?

Longoria posted an almost league average 99 OPS+ in 2017, his final year in Tampa. He won the Gold Glove for third basemen, posting double digit Defensive Run Saved for the fifth time in his career. After that, the 31 year old Longoria was traded to the San Francisco Giants

Since then, his play has undeniably declined. This may be because the natural product of aging, or another factor. His swing% is down 2 whole points from his high in 2017, especially on pitches inside the zone. Additionally, Longoria's contact percentage on the swings are down as well. With pitchers pounding the zone 47.6% of the time against him, Longoria is quickly finding 2 strike counts. Although his raw stats are dragged down by his playing environment, his bat is not what it was. One positive is Longoria has taken more walks than he had all of last year. Already.

Glove-wise, Longoria is still satisfactory at third but not a Gold Glove-caliber player. Longoria's range has gotten better this season, but his errors are red flags. Fans Scouting Report has Longoria's tools as worse than before, but he is still performing enough to be on the field.

Longoria's contract is...a problem. Being owed a ton of money, and performing at a 3 WAR level is generally not acceptable (Hi, Bryce Harper). His early decline had led to him falling off of the HOF path many projected he was on, with 50 WAR at his age 31 season

May your pennants, especially your 2008 Rays AL Champions one, fly forever.

-Prentiss

Appreciate Fernando Rodney's Arrow

Pitchers are odd little creatures. They have their walk-in music, funky windups; they mess around with physics and have their own little celebrations. Especially closers.  They have some fun celebrations.

They do this thing called save games. They finish the ninth inning in a sorta-close game and rack up this stat called The Save. As long as said closer doesn't blow the lead, they get that save. Anyone can do this. Even 3 innings in a blowout win qualifies. But the important part is how you finish.

Admittedly, closer walk in music is a whole science, determining the right tunes to hype up the crowd. From ACDC's Hells Bells (Trevor Hoffman) to Abba's Dancing Queen (John Smoltz), the whole science of closer music can impact every genre. But a nice walk in song means nothing if you can't close the deal. And how you are after you close the deal is far more important.

Normally what occurs is a little celebration, some handshakes and the occasional fist bump, or - in Dennis Eckersley's case - a pump. Some pitchers decide to remain stoic and show little emotion. But not in the case of Fernando Rodney.

Fernando Rodney is a unique pitcher. From an objectively odd hat tilt to an interesting career trajectory, Rodney is unique. He is well traveled due to one of two reasons. Either teams don't like him to lock him up long term to be a closer, or teams fight over the arrow.

Rodney has fired his arrow after every save, or sometimes when he gets pulled. The Arrow is the sign to celebrate, that Rodney has done his job. The team has won, and Rodney finished the game. Though the celebration is widely known in baseball circles, Rodney is the sole pitcher to use it.

Please note that the following italicized portion follows the highest of journalistic standards:

The Arrow is irresistible for MLB teams. Rodney travels year to year because every team wants him, and Rodney wants everyone to experience the power of his archery skills. Teams reportedly fight over him at the trade deadline, according to sources such as Theo Epstein, Terry Francona and many others. During the trade deadline (according to the aforementioned), teams reportedly send an intern each to a Hunger Games-style simulation to determine who will get Rodney. Of course this very well may be false, but is far more interesting than the reality: Rodney is a mediocre pitcher.

Fernando Rodney was just called to the majors by the Nationals.  Hopefully we'll see even more archery in the future.

May your pennants, and arrows, fly forever.

-Prentiss and Ryan

Brad Keller is Moving Away From his Fastball, with Mixed Results

Royals rotation leader (not ace) Brad Keller has experienced some struggles this year. Keller was expected to build off his debut of a 3.08 ERA in 140 innings in 2018, but he has been struggling as of late. (All Stats are excluding his start on June 24, 2019)


Keller is using his fastball 63.9% of the time, much lower than the 69.7% usage rate he posted last year. The usage has impacted his 4 seam usage far more than his sinker, as Keller only uses his sinker one less pitch per every hundred compared to last year. His 4 seam usage has dropped from 44.3% to 39.3%, which is quite drastic. His velocity has slipped concerning all of his pitches, but the change is negligible at best, maybe 1 mph at most.

Keller is using his offspeed pitches more, but not his changeup. His changeup usage declined from 4.1% to 1.9%. One of Keller’s rarer offerings is now a pitch that hitters do not have to worry about: the slider. He is using it 34.2% of the time compared to 26.2% last year. So what are the results?

Keller, this year, is getting fewer swings on pitches outside the zone, fewer swinging strikes and more contact against all of his pitches (the contact has been harder, too). He is in the strike zone 38.6% of the time, compared to 40.8% in his breakout 2018 season. As a whole, Keller’s peripherals are declining. But does this usage bring any benefit?

The Royals righty has only given up 4 home runs this year, and has a 0.4 HR/9, one of the best of those figures in the league. However Keller has walked 46 batters already this year, one of the worst totals in the league. His lack of command leads to more baserunners and runs given up in general. Keller might need to change his approach and focus on commanding his slider better, or varying the sequencing of his pitches.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

Fiers on Fire Since No-No

Mike Fiers managed to pitch the first no hitter of the 2019 season, and the second of his career, joining luminaries such as Justin Verlander, hall of famer Roy Halladay, and Homer Bailey. Since then, Fiers has been much better for the Oakland A's.

Fiers started off the season with several up-and-down performances, with his April 7th performance against the Astros, the team Fiers threw his first no hitter for, marking the beginning of the stretch of bad games culminating with a 3.1 inning, 6-run start on April 20th, raising his ERA to 8.28, the highest of the season excluding the one game sample after opening day. Combined, his next 2 starts were 12 innings and 5 runs, barely satisfactory performances. On May 7, Fires threw his no hitter against the Cincinnati Reds and began to heat up.

Few thought Fiers, with his 6.81 ERA pre-No Hitter, could keep up his performance. But, magically, he did. Since (and including) May 7, Fiers has been on a hot streak. With a 66% strike rate, Fiers has only allowed 10 extra base hits. The former Tiger has posted a 2.51 ERA and has not lost a game. Posting 32 strikeouts to only 15 walks has helped make Fiers one of the A's best starters during this time. Will he keep it up?

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

The Next Man to Hit .247

Khris Davis is famous for hitting 0.247, as he’s done it four straight seasons.  He’s a power-hitting DH playing for the Oakland Athletics and led Major League Baseball with 48 home runs last year.

A quick note: while Davis’ batting average has held steady over the aforementioned seasons, the major league average has actually gone down.  That means Davis has technically been improving his batting average!

A player has burst onto the scene in 2019 who has a very similar offensive profile to Khrush.  I’ve collected some statistics (some basic and some not) and laid them out for you below:

Clearly, our mystery player and Davis share numerous power and plate discipline traits.  Their xwOBAs on contact are both extraordinary compared to the MLB average. They’re both relatively slow but have power to all fields, which they utilize by hitting the ball to center field often.  But while they make amazing contact on pitches thrown to them, the two sluggers have trouble making contact in the first place (see their strikeout percentages).

If you pay attention to baseball news, figuring out our mystery player’s identity shouldn’t be too difficult.  For everyone else: our man is Mets rookie first baseman Pete Alonso.

While the 24 year old is not currently hitting 0.247, that future looks bright.  We’ll see how it goes!

May your pennants fly forever.

-Ryan

Tommy Kahnle is Back

The Yankees traded for Tommy Kahnle during the middle of the 2017 season to strengthen their super-bullpen. Kahnle did exactly as he was expected to do, finishing out 2017 as a reliable reliever for New York. However, his 2018 season did not go as planned, and there were calls from fans and the media to cut him.

The Yankees were Kahnle’s original team. Although he never appeared in a major league game with them, Kahnle was drafted in the 5th round of the 2010 draft and spent several years in their minor league system. Sensing his promise, the Colorado Rockies scooped him up in the Rule 5 Draft and the righty made his MLB debut on April 3, 2014. After 2 years and 102 innings of 100 ERA+ relief pitching, they traded him to the White Sox after the 2015 season. Kahnle put in one and a half solid years for Chicago, who eventually traded him to the Yankees during summer 2017. Kahnle posted a 2.70 ERA for the Yankees through the remainder of the 2017 season. In 2018, though, the wheels fell off the wagon.

Kahnle lost more than 3 mph off his fastball, and that combined with batters not biting on his offerings, and being unable to find the strike zone compared to previous years, with his strike percentage down by 6, batters were able to hit Kahnle harder: he allowed a 16.1% soft contact rate, while his medium contact rate went down and his harder hit contact went up. His K-BB% dropped by 10%. This all led to a 6.56 ERA in the majors for the Yankees in 23.1 innings. He did not fair much better in the minors, posting a 4.01 ERA for the Yankees’ AAA affiliate.

This season, Kahnle is posting a 2.70 ERA, inflated by a disastrous 1 inning, 4 run appearance against the Indians on June 9. His fastball velocity is back up around 97 mph, and his slider usage has dropped, favoring his changeup a career high 42.3% of the time. Batters are swinging 7% more often than against him last year, while contact against his pitches is down 1.3%. Kahnle is now able to find the zone roughly half the time, compared to only 45.7% last year.

So while much of the credit for the Yankees’ bullpen dominance may go to Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino, Kahnle’s improvement is also a major reason why the unit has been successful.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss