Royals rotation leader (not ace) Brad Keller has experienced some struggles this year. Keller was expected to build off his debut of a 3.08 ERA in 140 innings in 2018, but he has been struggling as of late. (All Stats are excluding his start on June 24, 2019)
Keller is using his fastball 63.9% of the time, much lower than the 69.7% usage rate he posted last year. The usage has impacted his 4 seam usage far more than his sinker, as Keller only uses his sinker one less pitch per every hundred compared to last year. His 4 seam usage has dropped from 44.3% to 39.3%, which is quite drastic. His velocity has slipped concerning all of his pitches, but the change is negligible at best, maybe 1 mph at most.
Keller is using his offspeed pitches more, but not his changeup. His changeup usage declined from 4.1% to 1.9%. One of Keller’s rarer offerings is now a pitch that hitters do not have to worry about: the slider. He is using it 34.2% of the time compared to 26.2% last year. So what are the results?
Keller, this year, is getting fewer swings on pitches outside the zone, fewer swinging strikes and more contact against all of his pitches (the contact has been harder, too). He is in the strike zone 38.6% of the time, compared to 40.8% in his breakout 2018 season. As a whole, Keller’s peripherals are declining. But does this usage bring any benefit?
The Royals righty has only given up 4 home runs this year, and has a 0.4 HR/9, one of the best of those figures in the league. However Keller has walked 46 batters already this year, one of the worst totals in the league. His lack of command leads to more baserunners and runs given up in general. Keller might need to change his approach and focus on commanding his slider better, or varying the sequencing of his pitches.
May your pennants fly forever.
-Prentiss
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