Games in History: 2005 NLCS Game 5

“In the air, left field, and Pujols has given St. Louis the lead.” These words haunt many Astros fans, at least those who witnessed the 2005 season.

Chris Carpenter pitching during Game 1

For context, the St. Louis Cardinals were in Houston facing the Astros in the NLCS for the second year in a row. In this case, however, they were trailing the Astros and were on the brink of elimination in Game 5 trailing 3 games to 1. Albert Pujols was posting a .330/.430/.609 line that particular MVP winning season, Chris Carpenter would win the National League Cy Young award, and Roger Clemens got terrible run support. Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt made up the core of the Astros rotation while the lineup had a mix of young and old, from Craig Biggio to Lance Berkman.

With Pettitte on the mound (shown from NLDS), the Astros felt good about their chances of heading to their first World Series. The Cardinals scored two off Pettitte in the bottom of the third, with David Eckstein and Jim Edmonds scoring on a Mark Grudzielanek single. Pettitte managed to escape without further damage, eventually going 6.1 innings and yielding to Chad Qualls. Pettitte only got 1 run of support from Craig Biggio singling in [current Angels manager] Brad Ausmus in the bottom of the second.

In the bottom of the 7th inning, Carpenter came out to face the Astros lineup. After coaxing a ground ball to shortstop for the first out, Craig Biggio reached on an error, and a Chris Burke single put runners on the corners with 1 out. Lance Berkman ripped a line drive home run to left, and the Astros took the lead 4-2. Carpenter eventually finished the inning, getting Mike Lamb to fly out to Jim Edmonds on his 119th pitch. After a combination of Mike Gallo and Dan Wheeler managed to get Larry Walker, Mark Grudzielanek and Yadier Molina to get out, Jason Isringhausen retired Jason Lane, Ausmus and Adam Everett in the bottom of the inning. Brad Lidge came out the bullpen ready to send the Astros to the World Series.

Lidge took 4 and 5 pitches to strikeout John Rodriguez and John Mabry, respectively, bringing the Cardinals to their final out. Lidge got 2 strikes on batter David Eckstein, and the crowd in Houston was on their feet ready for the World Series. Eckstein managed to poke a ground ball through the hole into left field. Eckstein then managed to take second base, which would be irrelevant anyways as Jim Edmonds walked on 5 pitches. This brought Albert Pujols to the plate, with 2 outs and an increasingly nervous Houston crowd. Remember, no team had ever blew a chance at winning a series when they had 2 strikes and 2 outs on the batter in the other team’s final chance and they rallied for multiple hits (besides the 1986 Red Sox).

Lidge managed to get a first pitch strike on Pujols. Brad Ausmus called for a slider, hoping that Pujols would bite. Although it was a high leverage situation, Lidge would certainly settle for a mere walk or single by Pujols. Lidge delivered his pitch and got Pujols to swing...at the slider that he hung over the middle of the plate. That he rocketed into left, above the train tracks. His absolute moonshot silenced the Houston crowd, with Pujols remarking that he could hear his footsteps as he circled the bases. Lidge eventually managed to strike out the side, getting Reggie Sanders to swing and miss.

The pressure was now on Isringhausen to hold the lead. After getting Willy Tavares and Jose Vizcaino to ground out to Pujols, he got Chris Burke to fly out to right field, forcing a Game 6 (that the Astros would win on a wonderful performance by Roy Oswalt).

So although in the end it only delayed the inevitable, the game was amazing.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss

Justin Verlander is a Car Commercial

Riddle me this: what makes a marketable car?  What many of us often hear in commercials are varying aspects of the following:

Speed.

Durability.

Consistency.

Awards.

Improvement upon past models.

You’ve read the title of this piece, so you know who I’m going to be writing about.  Hopefully you’ve heard of Justin Verlander, or even better, know of his pedigree.

I’m going to go over the aforementioned car commercial tropes and apply them to our friend JV, so roll down your windows and enjoy the ride!

Speed

Though velocity is certainly not everything that a pitcher needs to succeed at the major league level, it is undeniably an important aspect of getting hitters out.

Justin Verlander has been pitching in the major leagues full-time since 2006.  Over that period, the righty has averaged approximately 94.4 miles per hour on his fastball compared to the Major League average of ~91.2 miles per hour among his fellow starting pitchers.  Clearly, Verlander is special when it comes to throwing a baseball as fast as humanly possible.

To prove that point, Verlander ranks fourth (minimum 1000 innings) in fastball velocity behind Chris Archer, Stephen Strasburg  (of whom Prentiss wrote about here), and current teammate Gerrit Cole in four-seam velocity.

Durability and Consistency

Pitchers break a lot, of course.  After all, it’s not very difficult to hurt your arm or another part of your body when trying to generate the velocities needed to have a chance at a professional career.

Justin Verlander has been remarkably unbreakable over the course of his storied career.  He’s only made one trip to the Disabled/Injured List over his entire career; it was for a bit over a week.

Seriously, think about that!  Over 14 full seasons, Verlander has missed only a few starts as a result of not being on the roster.  Now, that’s deceiving because the fireballer missed 12 starts in 2015 due to an oblique injury and corresponding surgery.

Even with 2015 being taken into account, Verlander has missed just 42 starts over his 14-year career if we generously assume a baseline of 34 starts a year.  Therefore, the hurler has missed just 3 starts per season. That’s incredible considering how hard he throws and how much he’s thrown over the years.

Now, being an innings-eater for a team is useful but not extraordinary.  If a pitcher made 34 starts per year but has an ERA in the 5s every season, he would only be useful on a rebuilding team.  That, of course, is not Justin Verlander.

Among qualified American League starting pitchers, Verlander has ranked 11th or better in terms of ERA every season besides 2008 and  his 2013-2015 stretch of being “only” above league average. That’s 10 seasons of dominance and 4 seasons of serviceability, which is anything but inconsistency in my mind.

Even better: Verlander has averaged nearly 5 WAR per season over his career, and that does not even account for the fact that 2019 isn’t even halfway over yet.  This guy is just amazing.

Awards

Though I tend to ignore awards and look at the raw data available to determine the legacy of a player, I think it’s important to talk about the accolades that Justin Verlander has collected over his career.  The fact that this section perfectly fits my car commercial theme doesn’t hurt either.

Shall we begin with the tour around Verlander’s trophy case?

2006: Rookie of the Year

2007: All-Star, top 5 in Cy Young voting, top 20 in MVP voting

2009: All-Star, top 5 in Cy Young voting, top 20 in MVP voting

2010: All-Star

2011: All-Star, Cy Young, Most Valuable Player

2012: All-Star, top 5 in Cy Young voting, top 20 in MVP voting

2013: All-Star

2016: Top 5 in Cy Young voting, top 20 in MVP voting

2017: World Series Ring, top 5 in Cy Young voting, ALCS MVP

2018: All-Star, top 5 in Cy Young voting, top 20 in MVP voting

(Thanks to Baseball Reference (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml)  for making that easy, by the way.)

So...not too shabby!

Improvement

If a perspective car customer wasn’t convinced by the unrealistic scenery and impressive specs on a certain car, companies typically promise that the new model of the certain car is markedly better than previous models.

Though he has never truly recaptured his 2011 brilliance, Verlander has steadily improved since his 2013-2015 mediocrity in an impressive fashion.  Firstly, let’s look at his ERA- and whiff percentage over the past five seasons as to get a sense of quality.

There’s a clear increase in whiff percentage and correlating decrease in ERA since 2014 - exactly what we want.

How has Verlander improved so much, despite his age?  Several articles have been written on the subject recently (here, here, and many more), so I’ll primarily just be restating prior conclusions.

The Astros are famous for enhancing high spin rate fastball-curveball combinations, from Collin McHugh to Ryan Pressly. A similar change, though less drastic, appears to have occurred with Verlander’s fastball and curveball, but interestingly the effect is even stronger when it concerns Verlander’s slider (his primary secondary pitch).  What JV has also improved since his rough patch is the command of his pitches:

As shown in the zone profiles above, Verlander is throwing more pitches down and away (to righties; down and in to lefties), where he gets the most swings and misses, and fewer pitches inside (to righties; outside to lefties) where he gets a relatively low amount of whiffs:

The combination of higher spin rates (and the accompanying increase in pitch movement) and throwing pitches where batters are likeliest to swing and miss causes those poor hitters to chase more.  What makes those chases even better? Verlander is inducing less contact on pitches outside of the zone:

What the aforementioned shows is that Justin Verlander has proven that he can improve even while common sense about aging athletes introduces the contrary into our minds.

The Commercial

Justin Verlander can brave any terrain and can go thousands of innings without needing an oil (ligament) change.  He’s won awards from experts and is even better than before...somehow. His fastball might be the most aesthetically pleasing and most effective in the world, so come to a ballpark near you every fifth day and lease the kinda-new and vastly improved 2019 Justin Verlander for only thirty-three million dollars a year.

It’s a limited time offer, but that offer sure has lasted a long time.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Ryan

Is Stephen Strasburg a Disappointment for the Nationals?

Being drafted first overall in the MLB draft certainly brings high expectations for someone. They are expected to live up to their draft status as number one. Some exceed expectations and become a Hall of Fame caliber talents, like Chipper Jones, Harold Baines, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. Others, while not reaching that peak, still have a more than respectable career, a la Darin Erstad, Adrian Gonzalez, Rick Monday and BJ Surhoff. And others, such as Brein Taylor and Matt Bush, don’t live up to the status to say the least.

Stephen Strasburg was almost certainly aware of the high expectations regarding his future. Already having a bronze medal in the closet from the 2008 Summer Olympics, Strasburg was ready to make his mark on the MLB and he certainly did. On June 8, 2010, affectionately called Strasmas by ESPN, he made his debut. Strasburg went 7 innings and struck out 14 Pirates with Ivan Rodriguez behind the dish. The hype machine was on. Strasburg was going to win every Cy Young for the next decade and break every record known to man.

Well, at least until his elbow blew out. Strasburg had an inflamed right shoulder in July, not even a month after his debut, and spent some time on the disabled list. August came, and he eventually needed Tommy John surgery. He was shelved, and the Strasburg machine was placed on pause until he came back at the end of 2011. The next year Strasburg was available for the whole year, so we could all see him perform magical feats of pitching throughout a pennant race.

We dropped the asteriks. Until September. Strasburg was shut down at the end of the season as not to get hurt as he came back from surgery. He was replaced by the unforgettable John Lannan, 2 time opening day starter and the best #31 in Nationals history (until Max Scherzer). Strasburg sat on the Physically Unable to Perform list, watching the Nationals lose in the NLDS.

The next few years resulted in a rise of typical Strasburg seasons; above average and some miscellaneous injuries every season. He led the league in strikeouts in 2014, and FIP and HR/9 in 2017. Strasburg signed an extension at the start of the 2016 season, with the 2017 season resulting in his best season, coming in third for the National League Cy Young award voting behind Clayton Kershaw and winning teammate Max Scherzer.

Strasburg, by most metrics, has had an amazing career. A 3 time All Star, Silver Slugger, and a couple top finishes for the Cy Young. But, according to some, he has not. He didn’t live up to his original hype, and never delivered in the playoffs. Although he has a 0.80 ERA in the 2014 and 2017 NLDSes, the Nationals could not manage to win either series. A super hyped prospect failed to deliver in the playoffs for the Nationals. Sound familiar?

In the end, however, we must disregard his draft status and look at his career objectively. Strasburg has had an amazing career, making the Nationals relevant for so many years, and more recently pairing with Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation for years. Strasburg has been, in all regards, an amazing pitcher and should be recognized as such rather than a disappointment due to not striking out 15 batters a game.





May your pennants fly forever.





-Prentiss

What If: Sid Bream Out in 1992 NLCS Game 7

They say alternate universes exist-that there are infinite timelines,-and differing events happen. Do we believe that? Well, that doesn’t matter, because we ’re looking back on the biggest events that could have gone differently. In this edition of What If? We look back at the 1992 NLCS and more specifically the bottom of the 9th in Game 7.

“Justice is scoring the tying run, Bream coming to the plate. And he is safe, safe at the plate. The Braves are going to the World Series!”

That call is one that will last forever in baseball history, Sid Bream beating the throw from Barry Bonds to score the winning run and sending the Braves to the World Series, and sending the Pirates home losers for (seemingly) eternity. However, what if this was changed?

The place to start would be the hit not occurring in the first place. The single dropped in the outfield, so what if the outfield grabs it? Actually, there is a relatively high chance that this would have happened, considering (5 Time Gold Glove Center Fielder) Andy Van Slyke told Bonds, himself considered one of the best left fielders to play the game, to play shallower after a foul liner from pinch hitter Francisco Cabrera. Bonds reportedly flipped Van Slyke the middle finger and stayed in
position.

The ball from Cabrera landed, you guessed it, right where Van Slyke said it would. If Bonds had shifted shallower, he could have caught the ball. If he caught the liner, the game would be over and the Pirates would go to the World Series. Far more likely is the ball dropping in though. With 2 outs and the ball dropping in, it is highly likely that the Braves would tie the game either way, with a young David Justice on third scoring the tying run.

So far we have the ball dropping in either way, with Bonds in correct position for a throw to the plate. Even if he was not (which is reality), Bonds rockets a throw to home to get the lumbering Sid Bream. So in our alternate universe, what if Bonds gets Bream at the plate?

Van Slyke and Bream, not during Game 7

The game is tied and heading into extras, where anything could have happened. If the Braves end up winning, then history returns to normal. What if the Pirates win instead?

It would be a Pirates vs. Blue Jays World Series, which we will not try to predict. Either way the Pirates are a World Series team, not “having the window slammed on [their] fingers” in the words of Van Slyke. The Pirates would continue their historic winning, from Bill Mazeroski walking off the Yankees in 1960 to the “We are Family” Pirates and Willie Stargell in 1979, and...1992. Bonds might not leave after all, seeing Pittsburgh is a contending team with Bonds and 1990 Cy Young winner Doug Drabek leading the way. The ownership may be more likely to spend money and the team is more likely to stick together, and increased fan support will follow.

The Braves, on the other hand, are sent back to Atlanta without another pennant. They would most likely still pursue Greg Maddux, but who knows if Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine would exist? They maybe even sign Bonds away from the Pirates rather than the slugger going to the Giants.

To get really ambitious, the Braves and Pirates would be the challengers to the Phillies, who were the 1993 National League Champions. The Phillies would most likely not make the Series, robbing us of Curt Schilling postseason heroics, Mitch Williams doing his (wild) thing, and Joe Carter touching them all. The Phillies would still be in their hole, and the NL East would be altered permanently.

May your pennants fly forever.

-Prentiss